# US Watchtower

> US Watchtower is a public, nonpartisan intelligence monitor. It translates named public sources into plain-English readings, makes data gaps visible, and separates observed signals from possible connections.

Canonical URL: https://uswatchtower.com/
Creator: Ira Ferencz
Public identity: https://x.com/imf711
Sitemap: https://uswatchtower.com/sitemap.xml
Crawler policy: https://uswatchtower.com/robots.txt
Web manifest: https://uswatchtower.com/manifest.webmanifest

## What the site shows

- A modeled live debt path that recalculates every 0.3 seconds.
- Modeled fiscal-year outlays, revenue, and gap instruments that advance at deliberately staggered 0.5-, 0.7-, and 1.1-second cadences.
- The latest confirmed U.S. Treasury total public debt outstanding value shown separately from the model.
- Recent changes calculated from official Treasury business-day closes.
- Congressional Budget Office baseline figures for deficits, interest costs, and debt held by the public as a share of GDP.
- A public-intelligence monitor spanning fiscal, monetary, trade, sanctions, energy, military, cyber, influence, outbreak, and space-system domains.
- Connected verified feeds from the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, FRED government-source series, CISA, U.S. Treasury OFAC, WHO Disease Outbreak News, official U.S. defense releases, and NOAA Space Weather.
- A plain-English daily watch that identifies elevated within-source readings without ranking danger across unlike domains.
- Directional connections to watch, each labeled as a documented mechanism or research hypothesis rather than a correlation or causal finding.

## Delivery and freshness

- While the public-intelligence monitor is open, it automatically requests the current source layer every 30 seconds.
- The systems endpoint uses a 30-second shared revalidation window and exposes `delivery.recommendedRefreshMs`, `delivery.retrievedAt`, and a limitation statement.
- Retrieval time and source observation time are different fields. Retrieval can be near real time; an underlying source changes only when its publisher releases a new observation.
- Treasury debt, SOFR, trade, WTI, CISA, OFAC, WHO, defense-publication, and NOAA series retain their own displayed publication cadences.
- “Connected source” means the named source responded during the latest retrieval cycle. It does not mean the publisher provides a continuous real-time stream.

## Statistical policy

- A domain reading is a within-source empirical activity percentile. It is not a probability, severity rating, forecast, or claim of hostile intent.
- Robust readings use a median/MAD comparison and expose sample size, comparison window, baseline, and quality grade in the analyst detail.
- Elevated means a connected source is at or above its 80th percentile within its own series. Percentiles from different domains are not directly comparable.
- An empirical association requires at least 60 aligned observations, adequate overlap, Benjamini–Hochberg false-discovery control at q <= 0.10, and stable direction across declared windows.
- Correlation never establishes causation, coordination, attribution, or intent.
- No verified series means no score. US Watchtower does not silently substitute synthetic data.

## Measurement and model policy

The moving headline and fiscal-year run-rate instruments are estimates, not official real-time measurements. The headline is anchored to the latest official Treasury close and extended using the average rate of change over the preceding 30 days. The fiscal-year instruments distribute CBO annual projections across the fiscal year. The debt model reconciles whenever a new official record becomes available.

## Primary sources

- U.S. Treasury Debt to the Penny: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny
- Congressional Budget Office 2026–2036 baseline: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62105
- CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities: https://www.cisa.gov/known-exploited-vulnerabilities-catalog
- U.S. Treasury OFAC Recent Actions: https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York Markets Data API: https://markets.newyorkfed.org/static/docs/markets-api.html
- FRED U.S. trade balance (underlying U.S. government sources): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOPGSTB
- FRED WTI crude oil spot price (underlying U.S. EIA): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO
- NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center: https://www.spaceweather.gov/
- WHO Disease Outbreak News: https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news
- Official U.S. defense releases RSS directory: https://www.war.gov/News/RSS/

## Machine-readable endpoint

- Latest official Treasury records proxied without caching: https://uswatchtower.com/api/debt
  - When Treasury is temporarily unavailable, this endpoint returns a clearly labeled cached official snapshot with `meta.data_status = "cached_official_snapshot"`; it must not be described as live.
- Orchestrated verified-source system readings: https://uswatchtower.com/api/systems
  - Active pages request this endpoint every 30 seconds. Do not infer that a source itself updates every 30 seconds.

## Domain and method pages

- Public Intelligence Monitor: https://uswatchtower.com/systems
- Evidence standard: https://uswatchtower.com/methodology
- Fiscal conditions: https://uswatchtower.com/systems/fiscal
- Monetary conditions: https://uswatchtower.com/systems/monetary
- Trade conditions: https://uswatchtower.com/systems/trade
- Sanctions activity: https://uswatchtower.com/systems/sanctions
- Energy markets: https://uswatchtower.com/systems/energy
- Military activity: https://uswatchtower.com/systems/kinetic
- Cyber exposure: https://uswatchtower.com/systems/cyber
- Information environment / influence coverage: https://uswatchtower.com/systems/information
- Outbreak activity: https://uswatchtower.com/systems/biosecurity
- Space weather and systems: https://uswatchtower.com/systems/space

## Agent access

- All public pages return indexable server-rendered HTML with canonical URLs and descriptive metadata.
- Domain pages include page-specific Schema.org structured data naming their scope and primary public sources.
- Use the sitemap for exhaustive URL discovery and the APIs for current machine-readable readings.
- JavaScript is not required to discover the site hierarchy or follow its primary internal links.

## Citation guidance

Attribute modeled figures to “US Watchtower live model” and official figures to the named source. Do not describe the moving fiscal headline as an official measurement. Do not describe activity percentiles as probabilities, severity, or cross-domain rankings. Do not describe a declared pathway as a tested association or causal finding. Preserve the displayed observation date, latency, provenance, and caveat when citing a system reading.